Using simulation modelling to understand the impact of service changes in Castle Point & Southend CCG

The two CCGs were looking to negotiate with South Essex Partnership Trust a transfer of responsibilities for some patients from secondary to primary care management. We were asked to model the effects of a range of possible criteria for identifying the relevant cohort, on both the provider Trust, and on individual GP practices.

Via discussion with local stakeholders, we identified a range of possible criteria which could be relevant: age, care cluster, frequency of contact, recency of admission, services used. We modelled future capacity and demand requirements for each combination of options, and agreed with the clients a preferred option and its implications.